Auction estimates on 1895 to 1905 material: how to read them and what they hide

An estimate is a marketing instrument produced by a business that earns money when a lot sells. It is an informed opinion, made by people who see a great deal of material, and it is also a number chosen to bring bidders into the room. Both things are true at once. Reading it as a valuation is the most common mistake at this end of the market.

The low estimate does most of the work. In normal practice the reserve, which is the price below which the seller will not part with the lot, sits at or under the low estimate rather than above it. That makes the low figure a rough floor rather than a prediction. The high figure is much softer and often reflects what the house hopes two determined bidders might do.

What the range is built from

Specialists set estimates from comparable sales, and the choice of comparables is where judgement enters. A picture of this period will be measured against similar works by the same artist, in similar condition, sold recently enough to matter. When the market has been quiet, the honest approach is a wide range or an estimate on request. A tight range on thin evidence usually means the consignor had expectations.

Condition moves estimates more than most buyers realise, and the catalogue rarely says so directly. A relined canvas, a trimmed print margin or a restored rim on a glass vase can each halve a figure that otherwise looks conservative. The condition report is a separate document you have to request, and it is written carefully. Read it as a list of what the house is willing to state rather than as a full account.

Financial arrangements sit behind some estimates and they are disclosed in symbols rather than in sentences. A house guarantee means the consignor gets a minimum regardless of the result, and an irrevocable bid means a third party has already committed to buy at a set level. Both change how a lot behaves in the room. The explanation of those symbols is printed in the conditions of sale, which is the part of the catalogue nobody reads.

• 1
  Add the buyer premium and any taxes before you compare an estimate against a price you saw elsewhere
• 2
  Request the condition report in writing and keep it with your bidding notes
• 3
  Look up the symbols beside the lot number in the conditions of sale
• 4
  Check whether the same object has appeared at auction before and what happened to it
• 5
  Treat estimate on request as a signal about the seller expectations rather than about the object
• 6
  Set your maximum before the sale and write it down, including the premium

Published price databases show what sold and generally not what failed, which quietly reshapes the picture. Lots that pass are returned to the consignor and often reappear later with a different description or at another house. That history is hard to see from outside, though repeat photographs of the same object are a reliable clue. An object that has been offered several times is telling you something the estimate will not.

Using estimates as information

Compare the estimate against the catalogue entry rather than against your own hopes. A long, detailed entry with exhibition history and a firm attribution supports its number. A short entry with a hedged attribution, no provenance and a confident range is asking you to supply the confidence yourself. The length and specificity of the text is the cheapest signal in the whole catalogue.

An estimate answers the question of how to attract a bidder, not the question of what a thing is worth.

Before a sale, spend an hour with the collection records at the Art Institute of Chicago or another institution holding comparable material. Seeing how a museum describes a related work gives you a standard for the catalogue entry in front of you. Estimates look different once you know what a complete description contains.